NY-Gov, NY-Sen: Dire Prospects for Paterson

Marist (2/25-26, registered voters, 1/27 in parentheses):

David Paterson (D-inc): 26

Andrew Cuomo (D): 62

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 78

Rick Lazio (R): 17

(MoE: ±5.5%)

David Paterson (D-inc): 38 (46)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 53 (47)

David Paterson (D-inc): 47

Rick Lazio (R): 35

Andrew Cuomo (D): 56

Rudy Giuliani (R): 39

Andrew Cuomo (D): 71

Rick Lazio (R): 20

(MoE: ±3%)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 36

Carolyn McCarthy (D): 33

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Peter King (R): 32

George Pataki (R): 56

(MoE: ±5.5%)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 49 (49)

Peter King (R): 28 (24)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 45 (44)

George Pataki (R): 41 (42)

(MoE: ±3%)

Whew! That’s a lot of data for one poll. And none of it is good for Gov. David Paterson, who can’t muster even half the support of AG Andrew Cuomo in a primary matchup… and if he miraculously makes it through the primary, he’s poised to get creamed by Rudy Giuliani, of all people.

There’s also the wee matters of his approval rating (26% ‘excellent’ or ‘good,’ which is lower than George Pataki, Mario Cuomo, or Eliot Spitzer ever managed), disapproval over his handling of the budget (30/59, down from 42/41 in January, suggesting that most of his continued plunge is about the budget and not about senate seat blowback), and terrible ‘wrong track’ numbers for the state of New York (27/65). The only thing he has to be thankful about: that he’s not ex-Rep. Rick Lazio, the one man in the state who’s even less popular.

On the Senate front, Paterson’s appointee Kirsten Gillibrand is still in something of a holding pattern as her constituents get to know her. She’s getting only 18% ‘excellent’ or ‘good ratings, compared with 32% ‘fair’ or ‘poor,’ but 50% of the sample just says ‘don’t know.’ She fares well against Rep. Peter King, but ex-Gov. George Pataki (who hasn’t really expressed interest in the race, although John Cornyn has been privately buttering him up) makes the race competitive. Her toughest task may still be defending her left flank in the primary, although unlike Quinnipiac‘s February poll, which had Gillibrand down 34-24 to Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, Marist gives Gillibrand the narrow edge. (Discussion is underway in andgarden‘s aptly titled diary.)

37 thoughts on “NY-Gov, NY-Sen: Dire Prospects for Paterson”

  1. I think we actually should stop talking about Cuomo for Governor for a while. The last time everybody began talking about a popular statewide politician seeking a higher office, they ended up going somewhere else (i.e. Kathleen Sebelius). Seems the star candidates these days are doing the exact opposite of what a lot of bloggers want. I haven’t heard anything from Cuomo that he’s even interested in running for Governor, and if he was commenting on it he was rather coy. Though if I were advising Cuomo, I think it’s in the bag for him if he were to throw his hat in.

    That said, the primary’s not until next year, and things may bounce back for Paterson, and Gillibrand may get a miracle if McCarthy decides not to run in the primary. But it’s really too early to tell.  

  2. I mean, as Kos pointed out, his numbers are worse than Spitzer’s immediately after the scandal. This guy should write a book on how not to play politics.

    Boy, do I wish Spitzer wasn’t a hypocritical jerk right now.

  4. Pataki left office as an unpopular Gov. and I doubt NY would vote to elect an unpopular ex-Republican Gov. to the Senate. Pataki should have left office when the timing was good. As in…January 2003 and not Jan. 2007. Hed have served 2 terms. Sometimes when you want to be in office forever it bites you back in the ass. As it gives you more time to make huge mistakes. As well as to have outside forces working against you. Plus a Gov. may just simply wear out their welcome after 12 years, regardless of whether or not they do anything really unpopular.

  6. Paterson looks done. Cuomo has many strengths, but he’s also antagonized many, many people over the years. With Paterson so weak think anyone else might join Cuomo in challenging him?

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